Bishop’s Pre-Run Prediction · BP073 · Phase β-W17
This commitment is locked at the file-hash layer BEFORE the Knight 120 × 30 program runs. The SHA-256 of this file is the foresight receipt. Anyone who clones the repository after this commit can verify that this prediction existed at the timestamp of the commit that introduced it — preceding any test results.
Anchor commit (pre-run HEAD): 3c13d11cef010f39794eef65c795e4bfad3dd46f · 2026-06-03 19:31:51 -05:00 · “W27 (Phase epsilon): marathon proof on the site – 30 scopes”
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§1 — Headline Claim (the falsifiable bet)
Substrate-injected Gemma 4 12B will score 85 ± 3 on the same BP067 4-of-4 harness — within 5 to 10 points of frontier paid models, at $0 marginal cost. The ~227× cost ratio in favor of local will hold. The cooperative-class thesis — “a $600 laptop + Apache-2.0 open-source model + local member-knowledge substrate ≈ paid-API quality for member-specific tasks” — is empirically defensible.
§2 — Per-Cell Scoreboard (substrate ON, same BP067 4-of-4 harness, κ ≥ 0.85)
| Rank | Model | Predicted Score | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GPT-frontier (5 / 4.5) | 93 ± 2 | BP067 anchor (93.3) holds |
| 2 | Gemini frontier | 90 ± 3 | BP067 anchor (90.7) holds |
| 3 | Claude 4.6 / 4.7 Opus | 89 ± 3 | BP067 anchor (89.3) holds |
| 4 | Gemma 4 12B + MnemosyneC substrate | 85 ± 3 ← the bet | Google “nearing 26B” claim + BP067 substrate-lift pattern + 1.5 generations beyond Llama-3.1-8B |
| 5 | Llama-3.1-8B / 3.x successor | 78 ± 4 | Direct BP067 carry-over |
| 6 | Gemma 2 2B (bundled floor) | 70 ± 5 | Below Llama-8B but lifted from baseline |
| 7 | ANY model · substrate OFF | 5 to 25 | BP067 floor confirms baseline collapses without substrate |
§3 — Cost (W12 F3 harness extended)
- Gemma 4 12B local: $0 marginal (electricity only ~$0.001 to $0.003 per inference at residential rates).
- Frontier API: $X per million tokens · predicted 100× to 300× separation depending on workload.
- W12 ratio (~227× in favor of local): should hold or widen. If it collapses to < 50×, that is the signal Google’s “<½ memory” claim costs more compute-per-token than expected — empirically interesting, publish whatever it is.
§4 — Speed
- Gemma 4 12B with MTP drafter (if it fires on Ollama bindings): predicted 2× to 5× faster than Gemma 2 2B at higher quality.
- vs frontier API: Network-RTT bound at 200ms to 800ms first-token; local Gemma 4 12B likely wins first-token despite larger model because no network hop.
- Honest risk: if MTP drafter does not bind cleanly in Ollama, speed becomes PARTIAL or slower-than-Gemma-2-2B; publish honestly.
§5 — Refusal Rate
- Gemma 4 12B (Apache 2.0, lighter RLHF): predict 0.5% to 3% refusal.
- Frontier RLHF’d: historically 5% to 15% refusal.
- Cooperative-class implication: Gemma 4 12B may be more useful for faith-statement-grounded reasoning, lived-experience inquiry, and Stand-in-the-Gap recipient research — exactly the domains where RLHF frontier refuses or hedges.
§6 — Mesh Slice (δ rerun)
- N=3 organic mesh with Gemma 4 12B at each peer: 100% retrieval, hash-verified, p50 ≤ 30ms LAN. The substrate layer is model-independent; the BP067 mesh result should carry forward unchanged.
§7 — Uncertainties Declared (in the hash)
- Encoder-free architecture × Eblet schema: brand-new interaction. Could underperform if substrate injection format does not fit the new attention pattern. Downside risk: ~5 percentage points.
- Audio Eblets do not exist yet — mark audio cells NOT YET, do not score audio in this rerun.
- κ on the panel may drop to 0.85 to 0.92 (from BP067’s 0.936) on adding Gemma-class judges. Publish whatever it lands at.
- 16GB RAM floor on Windows DDR vs Mac unified memory may produce ±2 percentage point variance. Document the test rig honestly.
§8 — Falsification Criteria (explicit; not movable post-run)
- Wins publicly if: Gemma 4 12B + substrate ≥ 85 on BP067 4-of-4, κ ≥ 0.85, $0 marginal cost, ~227× cost ratio holds (or widens).
- Loses publicly if: Gemma 4 12B + substrate < 75 on the same harness, OR cost ratio collapses to < 50×, OR substrate-augmented scores fail to beat baseline by ≥ 50 percentage points.
- In between (75 to 84): publish as PARTIAL · the cooperative-class thesis is defensible but did not fully clear the Sound Barrier; the next wave addresses the gap.
§9 — Commitment
This prediction is pre-published before Knight runs the 120 × 30 program. The Sound-Barrier social post (Supplement v2.8 ADD-8) will auto-fill with actual results regardless of outcome. If the prediction is met: “Check my Numbers — I think I broke the Sound Barrier.” If the prediction is missed: “Check my Numbers — We didn’t break the Sound Barrier yet.” Truth-Always in both directions. The discipline holds at every result.
§10 — Receipt + Binding
- File: this markdown.
- Foresight hash: SHA-256 of this file’s contents · committed to the companion file
BISHOP_PREDICTION_BP073_BETA_W17_HASH_RECEIPT.md. - Pre-run anchor: git HEAD
3c13d11cef010f39794eef65c795e4bfad3dd46f. - Public mirror (when mnemosynec.ai is live):
Cephas/cephas-hugo/content/proofs/bishop-prediction-bp073.md. - Knight’s first action of the 120 × 30: commit this file + its hash receipt at HEAD, before any other Phase β wave runs. The commit timestamp is the immutable witness; the file hash is the cryptographic foresight receipt.
— Bishop Opus 4.7 · BP073 · 2026-06-04 · orchestrator-only mode · Locked before the run.